Tuesday, May 18, 2004
This annoyed me today. I was watching Bob Novack (yes, the same Bob Novack who openly suggested that Bob Kerrey was so tough on Condi Rice because Kerrey is a racist) on CNN's Crossfire show. I've stopped watching the West Wing, but I like that I can still catch Josh Lyman, as played by Paul Begala.
In any case, they had their panel on to talk about oil and energy policy. Novack had a trap all ready. He showed that, adjusted for inflation, gas prices in 1981 were actually slightly more expensive than gas prices today. He then asked "do you know of any other commodity whose price has dropped over the last 20 years?" The implication being that oil can't be a problem if it's cheaper than it was 20 years ago.
There are two flaws (at least) in his logic. The first is not a logical flaw as much as a factual flaw. There's lots of commodities that are cheaper now than they were 20 years ago. Computers are cheaper, as are VCRs and other personal electronics. Novack was simply gambling that nobody at the table would be willing to go out on a limb without actual numbers in hand, and he was right. But the second flaw in his logic is that price is the only important measure. If oil costs about the same, but we're making much more of it, and using much more of it, our energy costs are much higher than they used to be. The fact that you can get a gallon for about the same amount of money doesn't matter if you need twice as many gallons.
I hate these guys so much.
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In any case, they had their panel on to talk about oil and energy policy. Novack had a trap all ready. He showed that, adjusted for inflation, gas prices in 1981 were actually slightly more expensive than gas prices today. He then asked "do you know of any other commodity whose price has dropped over the last 20 years?" The implication being that oil can't be a problem if it's cheaper than it was 20 years ago.
There are two flaws (at least) in his logic. The first is not a logical flaw as much as a factual flaw. There's lots of commodities that are cheaper now than they were 20 years ago. Computers are cheaper, as are VCRs and other personal electronics. Novack was simply gambling that nobody at the table would be willing to go out on a limb without actual numbers in hand, and he was right. But the second flaw in his logic is that price is the only important measure. If oil costs about the same, but we're making much more of it, and using much more of it, our energy costs are much higher than they used to be. The fact that you can get a gallon for about the same amount of money doesn't matter if you need twice as many gallons.
I hate these guys so much.
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